[FOX - Mike Harmon] Fantasy Fallout: Johan Santana Lands At Shea
Following months of rumor, conjecture and speculation regarding Santana’s 2008 whereabouts, it appears that general manager Omar Minaya has gone the distance and landed this perennial powerhouse and fantasy behemoth. The deal requires Santana to pass a physical and hinges on a contract extension. Both of those issues figure to fall to the wayside in short order to clear the path for Santana to take the ball on opening day.
It had been expected that the Red Sox or Yankees would land the two-time Cy Young award winner, but ultimately neither team would part with the prospects necessary to consummate a deal (Jacoby Ellsbury and Phil Hughes were the two sticking points). The Mets experienced a disastrous collapse in September of 2007, and Minaya clearly sought to upgrade the rotation. New York dealt outfield prospect Carlos Gomez (19 steals in the minors) and three pitchers, Phil Humber (11-9 with a 4.27 ERA at Triple-A), Deolis Guerra (4.01 ERA at Class-A) and Kevin Mulvey (12-10 with a 3.20 ERA at Double-A). Santana has long been one of the fantasy realm’s top options. The move to New York serves only to improve his already mind-boggling totals.
Santana has averaged 228 innings pitched in his four years as a starter in the Minnesota rotation. He racked up 4.96 strikeouts per walk allowed during this period, and his 1.07 WHIP in 2007 marked his worst full-season effort. Think about that for a second. Santana had pitched to a 1.00 WHIP or lower in three consecutive seasons.
Fantasy owners recognize the talent of Santana, so I shan’t drone on for too long. Santana usually starts slowly and then builds steam and positively dominates the competition thereafter. He owns a career 20-16 record with a 4.14 ERA and sizable 1.26 WHIP in the first halves of his four seasons as a starter, but possesses a 2.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and ridiculous 73-28 record following the All-Star break. Santana has averaged 17.5 wins in his four seasons as a starter.
What is the end game for this deal? Fantasy owners won’t need to wait for Santana to post his dominant totals this year. He’ll begin producing from day one at Shea Stadium, where he has allowed one earned run in two career starts (and those efforts came against strong New York lineups). Think back to when Roger Clemens joined the Astros. Don’t worry about the Mitchell Report and all of the non-mound issues of those years. Clemens came to the National League and took advantage of more weak opponents and his ability to face opposing pitchers and more defensive specialists. Look at this way. He won’t be facing the American League East powerhouses as we’d expected, so owners can rest more comfortably when considering his ERA and WHIP potential.
No, he’ll be pitching at Shea and facing the Nationals and Marlins lineups more frequently. More of his road starts will take place in RFK Stadium and Dolphins Stadium. That’s music to the ears of fantasy owners. Of course, Santana will need to battle the Phillies and Braves, but those teams are, to some degree, the NL counterparts of the Indians and White Sox (when they’re hitting).
I believe Santana will battle San Diego’s Jake Peavy for the National League Cy Young award. He’ll challenge his career marks across the board, and I’m going bold with my predictions here. Santana will achieve heights that force the Mets onto the back pages of the New York papers. He’ll pitch behind one of the most potent lineups in the game, and he’ll routinely pitch with leads. Unlike many of his counterparts at the position, Santana still pitches for perfection in those situations as if the score is one-nil.
Final line: 21 wins, 2.55 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 254 strikeouts
I’ll review what the deal means for the Twins in this space tomorrow.